19th April 2013, 04:29 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I never should have looked at that website Speedy. I layed a 40:1 shot Race 2 Scone based on the jockeys win strike rate. The worst I've ever seen: 1% 484 races for 6 wins!! E Weiszbach just had win No. 7.
RP
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Perhaps you should look at it based on the law of averages. If a jockey usually runs at 5% and is running now at 1% then he should be backed not layed as his strike rate will return to 5% longer term.
And the reverse is true lay jockeys which have a much higher strike rate (double) then the longer term (350 races) average. |