Hi RP
I realise this is not exactly what you're after but some time ago I researched the angle you're looking at now. Or something similar. What prompted my research was that I noticed some maidens could be beaten by a considerable distance but start next time at, on the face of it, an unjustifiably short price.
I don't have a database so the figures were compiled manually and use S-Tab starting prices.
I created an excel file with a summary of the data to use for lookup purposes when assessing which horses were most fancied for no apparent reason.

A few words of explanation of the attached excel file:
a) rows 2 to 21 refer to an actual race seconds before the jump.

b) rows 28 to 69 are the summary of the collected historical data.
c) cells a28 and a29 refer to all horses beaten by 0.1 to 1,0 lengths last start.
cells b28 and b29 show the average S/P at the next start for all horses beaten beaten by those margins last start.

d)the headings for the actual race data are self explanatory and Factor refers to the number of times the anticipated odds (i.e. tote s/p -1.00) are greater than the actual odds.

I was unable to determine a magic number that could be used as the decisive cutoff point at which a winner could be guaranteed. In fact, it wasn't always the highest Factor that provided the winner but the winner often came from the top two or three and rarely from the lower Factors.

I hope this is of some use to you.

Cheers
Ron

Attached Files

Calculator.xls (28.5 KB, 837 views)