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Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Thanks for the update darkydog2002.
It is frustrating when "systems" turn their toes up after showing so much promise!
Back to the drawing board.
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Hi All
Yes I agree it can be frustrating to find systems that offer promise only to turn negative as the sample size increases.
What is being referenced here in this thread is nothing more than variance. Unfortunately regardless of how successful you are as a punter, you cannot escape it. Betting strategies that are focused on higher strike rates and a solid sample of bets are more likely to be able to be adopted for profit versus a method with lower strike rates even if the POT is higher for the latter.
In terms of the 100 bet example cited in this thread and using a strike rate of 21% and adapting the realities of mathematics, dictate the following conclusions:
1. Your average bet size should not exceed 0.7% of your bank;
2. Using 1 line of deviation (68% of the time), you will likely have a drawdown of between 31-60 winners in terms of average bets;
3. Using 2 lines of deviation (95% of the time), you will likely have a drawdown of between 16-73 winners in terms of average bets;
4. There is still a 5% chance that your results will fall outside both points 2 and 3;
5. Depending on how long it takes to wager say 100 bets, your results in terms of POT% are likely (95% chance) to be between -32.7% and +52.7% POT after the 100 bets have been made and resulted.
6. The longest losing sequence will fall between 4 and 25 (95% of the time).
Our Betting Analyser is the only module that we are aware of that plots the exact position in terms actual betting realities when testing systems on a historical basis. In allows a multitude of testing across level and proportional staking using several different pricing options to determine bet size. It will show you show you the results including draw-downs, bank highs, bank risk, turnover and other necessary information so that you can see exactly how your systems would perform in real life.
If you would like any assistance with this or other modelling then we would be happy to assist.