No not the SP just the fixed prices as then you know what prices you are getting.

I ran back a few days quickly looking at races where all horses under $30 could be dutched for < 90%. Using the lower available fixed odds. It won 25 out of 26 races. Profit on dutching to win $100 returned $311.05

So that's a 3.45 unit profit (311.05/90) and a 96% strike rate over the short time frame I looked.

It needs further investigation but its a promising start.



Ever heard of the fav long shot bias. Well the massive overs on betfair just bring this closer to remove the bias. For example a $100 horse on the tote should win 1% of races. It might be $400 on betfair. That's still only a difference of 0.75% chance difference. The horses real chances are more likely closer to 0.75% i9n reality then 1% due to the fav long shot bias.

The difference between a horse at $1.70 on the tote and $1.75 on betfair is 2.9%. That's a whole lot more then 0.75% value that your chasing in the long shots.

Work on percentages... not price.