Hi Clive

One way to achieve your objective is to find a way to profile the types of favourites that are more likely to under perform. This is what I and most professionals that I know do. A few tips that might help are:

1. Avoiding back markers (especially when the likely early pace conditions are against them and more relevant in larger fields);
2. Avoid those that are ridden by jockeys who are over bet by the market place.

In respect of the first point you will need access to reliable speed maps (unless you are able to construct them yourself and in regards to point 2. you focus on each jockey by only considering those rides when they are expected to perform. Personally I use this data and measure each jockey on a short and medium term horizon.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/