23rd May 2013, 09:12 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 59
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Later in Feb 2012 Bhagwan amended his earlier edict and it became:
"Only Dutch if Fav is $3.25+". Fact or Fiction?
A: Part Fiction
Of the last 55 no. >$30 BF Back priced winners, 50% were > $3.25 Tatts price.
So we're starting to see a useful filter emerge. Confidence can be gained by only Dutching races wherein the Fav is $4.00+. this is confirmed by long term stats wherein Fav's $4.00+ only win < 21% of the time so the luck is more spread amongst the other horses.
It's uncanny that longshots appear more often when the Fav is an average of $3.00 (29% Win S/R). Anyone got a theory on that?
RP
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I suspect you'll find that Field Size has a lot to do with this as FS seems to work linearly on the Fav. Price. Looking at Sat Metro it runs from 35.1% with FS8 to 26% at FS 16. A 29%WSR occurs at FS 11 which is the roughly average Field AllOz. Fascinating stuff .... thanks for the thought provoking thread. |