29th May 2013, 10:19 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Vortech
Ok - What I was trying to see is if over time the starting price or avg dividend dropped by 50c this would affect the long-term profitability of the system.
If long-term your system is showing around 45% strike rate and many of horses in the future are priced $1.50 (underlay) as most ratings people say, would you consider only those over the assessed price?
|
Hi Vortech
You raise a valid question however it would be almost impossible mathematically for the current average dividend which stands at $2.25 (5/3/10 to 28/5/13 - 2,742 sample size) and a long term strike rate which is currently 46.4% to move downward towards an average dividend of $1.75 (50c drop) without the propensity for the strike rate to move upwards to around 60% and in doing so maintain the same POT of 4.61%.
As stated in my last post, it is more than feasible to expect that you can improve the average dividend to around $2.34-$2.36 by obtaining top fluctuation. Of course having the ability to generate these or other potential system qualifiers well in advance of the race is a significant asset.
Hope that helps.
__________________
Regards
Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
|