31st May 2013, 10:05 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
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That one is a little above me, RP.
However, from working the Betfair place markets and general observations of place dividend differences compared with win odds, I don't think there can be a direct formula that is accurate.
The bookies use 1/5th the win odds for the place on most races, but to work out the chances of running second or third is something else. It does not just depend on the win odds, but also on the horse's statistics or individual chances of running second or third based on strike rate, class, win odds, etc etc.
Even the bookies 1/5th is flawed because a horse's place chance cannot be directly derived from the win price. This is why many bookies will only bet win only, others each way only, but usually place betting is only available where the bookie has built in a massive overround to cover the anomalies that can be exploited by the savvy.
In fact, this is one area that will cause a closing of account from online corporates. If they suspect one is exploiting anomalies regardless of odds, then the account is flagged immediately.
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