View Single Post
  #4  
Old 31st May 2013, 10:32 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,227
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I've googled for a formula to equate the probability of a horse running 2nd or 3rd but the mathematical models requires a phD in mathematics to understand!
Anyone ever come across anything that can predict probability % of a 2nd or 3rd placing based on Actual results?
RP
Not sure but I've googled some more and will have a crack at a a highly simplified solution for Horse 1 running 2nd...

5 horse race for simplification:
=> % winning chance(and probability out of 1) for each
1 20% = 0.20
2 20% = 0.20
3 30% = 0.30
4 15% = 0.15
5 15% = 0.15
TOTAL 100% = 1.00

Horse 1 can come 2nd in the following ways... 2-1,3-1,4-1,5-1
So taking each, 1 at a time...
=>2-1: P=0.20 x 0.20/0.80 = 0.05

(because total probability available for 2nd place getter is reduced by 0.20 given that first place has already happened i.e. 1.0-0.20=0.80)

=>3-1: P = 0.30x0.20/0.70 = 0.0857
=>4-1: P = 0.15 x 0.20/0.85 = 0.0353
=>5-1: P = same = 0.0353

Therefore, probability of Horse 1 running second to 2 OR 3 OR 4 OR 5 ;

P(1 runs 2nd) = 0.05 + 0.0857 + 0.0353 + 0.0353 = 0.2063 = 20.6%


Perhaps one of the maths freaks on here can verify the above and compute the equivalent for Horse 1 running 3rd.

If my maths is correct, probability of Horse 1 running 2nd OR 3rd is;

=> P(1 runs 2nd or 3rd) = 0.2063 + P (1 runs 3rd)


Cheers LG

PS would be easier using XL for standard sized field but just an illustration here and frankly.. I can't be jacked whipping up one tonight. Enjoy!

PSS Note Chrome's comment above("It does not just depend on the win odds...") and hence my highly simplified solution!!
__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
Reply With Quote