1st June 2013, 12:40 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
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Here's an example for $2.00 SP Favourites:
Starters Win Chance Place Chance 2nd Chance 3rd Chance
3 45.37% 100% 31.48% 22.22%
4 45.48% 88.25% 28.92% 14.16%
5 41.69% 85.09% 28.50% 15.04%
6 40.17% 82.20% 26.65% 15.38%
7 40.56% 79.35% 24.37% 14.41%
8 40.72% 77.08% 23.22% 13.15%
9 40.26% 74.74% 19.98% 14.49%
etc. etc.
You can see why there is no place betting on four runners or less, and why there is no third dividend on 7 runners or less.
1/5th the odds from the bookie for the place, means you lose $7.50 for every hundred bets on 8 runners, $10.31 for every hundred bets on 9 runners etc etc. The larger the field the more the odds are in favour of the bookie.
However, this is carte blanche, there are many instances where an individual horse has a better place chance than the 1/5th offered.
That is why you lose money if betting everything, but make money backing champions. |