OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - View Single Post - Ratings2Win Profitable Favourites

Hi Vortech,

I think that I stated previously in this thread, the main rule is based on rating consensus. That is the prime filter. There are few others that really eliminate the extremes and other then the Good/Dead track have no real bearing overall on the outcome. We might be talking about less then a hundred or so selections eliminated all together, so just a few percent.

In regards to the missing wet portion of the system; we use the same method for Slow and Heavy tracks. It still produces 700 selections for a 42.5% win SR and a positive POT if you can obtain a better price then the NSW/SP that we use. At NSW/SP it looses 2.21%.

What I have done with it, is applied one additional filter to make it into a great little system. That one rule is painfully obvious for a wet track system.

It just makes sense, when a horse is running on a wet track and he cops a hoof full of mud in his face, he isn't going to be too excited about continuing to run and what if he cops a few more? What about the sliding and interference .... I think I made my point. There is one horse that is pretty much immune to the mud slinging and interfearance at least.

The FRONT RUNNER !

Take any system that is failing in the wet, and only apply it to the front runners and you are more then likely have a winner providing that you have a logical method to begin with. At least that is what I find in Axis. But how do you find the front runner? What you need is an accurate and consistent way of measuring this and you are set.

Our R2W Axis has a few advantages over the standard form guide based in-running and one MAJOR difference.

We have the in-running positions for every TAB meeting in Australia so each horse and his past 20 starts has at least the settling position. So when we calculate our predicted in-running and our speed maps we are not relying on half completed data that the rest of Australian punters use.

The leader is not necessarily the horse that leads all the time. When we calculate horses PIR (position in running) it will vary from race to race, and while others look and can recognize the obvious leaders we have the ability to calculate who is likely to lead even if the field is full of back-markers!

Our PIR also creates speed maps that show horses initial likely velocity, in conjunction to his rail position and the rest of the field, so in a glance you can recognize who has the advantage and why a good leader in the outside gates is often undervalued by the market.

Anyway so applying our PIR (position in running) rank of one, and eliminating all the horses that are likely to cop mud in their face and interference on wet conditions we are able to produce a system with 48% SR and 9% POT. Applying the same to our already successful Dry favourite system increases the strike rate to 49.7% and 8.33% POT using our conservative NSW/SP divs.

You notice the correlation between the 2 systems is almost the same when taking this PIR into consideration, giving me confidence that the results are due to a pattern rather then a coincidence. In-fact I could combine them back together for a front running Favourite system and great success.

Unfortunately using last start settling position for instance, which is what most punters have, has absolutely no such results, and that is even with our complete settling position data.

Kind regards