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8th June 2013, 01:06 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 743
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Part 2
OK you've gathered your min 300 results. Now from the image attached you'll see that I have a sample of 11 results. I can tell you that from my stats the numer of races WON by an odds/on favourite is about 54%. So to simplify things for this tutorial, it works out to be about 6 winners to 5 losers hence the sample of 11 races I've shown.
Under the results I've sorted and displayed races "Won" at the top and races "Lost" underneath. You don't have to do this but it helps visualise what's going on. Now on the right of the sorted group we are going to enter a formula as if we were Backing the horses, and adjacent, a formula as if we were Laying the horses.
At cell Q18 enter this formula and then copy and paste it down to cell Q28:
=IF(L18="Won",(G18-1)*93.5,-100)
At cell R18 enter this formula and then copy and paste it down to cell R18:
=IF(L18="Lost",(100/(G18-1))*0.935,-100)
These formula will calculate the nett profit or loss based on whether our horse won or lost. Now enter =SUM(range) at bottom of the two columns to see the result.
If we were Backing Odds/On favourites we would have LOST $98.89 and
If were Laying Odds/On favourites we would have LOST $65.68.
Most punters don't even bother with this examination, they make a quid one day and it makes them feel good. Then another day they'll lose, have the irrates, but be back for more, absolutely mindless to the workings behind this Price range and none the wiser for their experience.
Still, for those of you that have just done this excercise, it doesn't look like a very profitable area of punting does it?
Well I'm here to tell you that by the time I've finished this tutorial and you go off and put it into practice, you'll be sending me a bottle of Moet every Christmas as a thankyou! .....RP
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