Part 4

The next step is to dismantle your 300+ selections into "bite size" pieces. Sort all results into the following dividend categories : <$1.30, $1.40, $1.50....$2.00. Once completed sort each category with Winners at top and Losers underneath. The attached image is for the category <$1.30

In the cell at bottom of Final Odds enter "=AVERAGE(range)" to get the average of final odds which is $1.24. Now divide 100 by $1.24 = 80.65%. I call this result the FORECAST WSR or forecast win strike rate. It's what the odds forecast as the chances of the selections in this category winning.

Next count the number of races Won (6) and divide by number or races (7) * 100:
(6/7)*100= 85.71%

So we can now compare the two:
Forecast WSR = 80.65%
Actual WSR = 86%

For Backers this is called an Overlay. In other words, selections in this category have more chance of winning than the dividends predict.

(A word of caution: These differences are the result of a very small sample and should not be considered as gospel) It's the technique that's important, and a very powerful one, once you have a larger sample.

OK back to looking at our <$1.30 category. Despite the 80+% WSR the profit isn't so good at $27.16. I'll try and improve on it, so as well as Backing the Favourite we'll Dutch Lay the Field to try and squeeze out a little more profit. I've added that new column to the right of the Back column. Similarly a very small bottom line profit of $9.29.

All up a total profit $36.45 on turnover of $700 = 5.2% POT

But wait there's MORE!!

You need to be like a forensic detective, look harder at the reasons why there were any losses? We see that the loser was "Up in Class". There was a winner too, but if we introduce a new filter and avoid Backing selections in races where favourite is <$130 and "Up in Class" we get a different result. We get 5 wins from 5 races for a profit of $186.85 and 37% POT.

Now remember back in Part 1 of the tutorial we couldn't make any profit out of this Odds/On group but we've just found a niche that's paying 37% on turnover! More importantly we've just learnt a lot more than "mug punter" will ever know about the long term results of betting on selections under $1.30. That's the payday for you, when that light in your head goes ON!!

So if you feel that based on the sampling, the POT is acceptable, we can write our first filter to apply to all results from now on:

=IF(AND(K#="No",G#<1.30),"B"," ")

So what this says is that if the selection isn't up or down in Class and the Odds are less than $1.30 then "B" Back the selection but if not, blank space. You will enter this filter in a cell to the right of your data. It will be one of twenty filters you will employ to build your "Black Box".

Disclaimer: The criteria and formulas used are not a guarantee of future performance. Please be responsible for gathering your own data to apply these techniques to.

Attached Thumbnails