10th June 2013, 11:38 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,051
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Is POT better than POS?
Now much is made of POT (Profit on Turnover) as a measure of the success or otherwise of Ratings, Systems, Performance. For me, the MORE important consideration is POS (Profit on Stake)
We start each betting day with a stake. An amount we should feel slightly uneasy with if we lose it but more than happy with if we double it as profit!
In the attached sheet, based on actual bets placed yesterday, is a set of bets placed using a theoretical $500 initial stake.
As the day progresses we are doing quite well but take note of how the more you bet the more your POT decreases. If we set a target: that we want to double our stake, we should have stopped betting after bet 4. The punting Gods smiled on us and gave us another 6 opportunities to quit, but we ploughed on!
Then we started to hit the inevitable losing patch, had a choice to quit for the day or start implementing loss recovery by increasing stakes. NOT GOOD. We were given another opportunity to quit at bets 15 -17 but we ploughed on to be hit with another loss. We took a punt and increased our stake 10 fold, which paid off! At the end of the day we achieved our POS target for a measley 3.3% POT and had a free rollercoaster ride at Luna Park.
On another thread the question was asked, " When to Quit?". My answer is," When you achieve your POS!".
Have a great day, RP
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Hi RP,
Another interesting post as usual!!
Your theory holds water during one day of betting activity, however doesn't the fact that you go again the next day, then increase your chance of hitting a loser?
Eventually, you have the same statistical chance of hitting a loser, as if you'd carried on after reaching your POS for the day?
E.g. 100 bets over 1 day, or 100 bets over 30 days.
You have the same statistical chance of hitting a loser, UNLESS, you have an edge in the earlier races.
Hope it makes sense, I'm just trying to add an angle to the debate and am enjoying your latest threads IMMENSELY!! 
Cheers RP.
__________________
The Schmile
"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty
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