Considering most known filters seem to have been throughly crunched, perhaps a variable filter needs to be thrown in to the pot ?

Many systems fall down due to a wild card.
The wild card I'm referring to is race placement of horses by trainers. Either stupidly, or deliberately.

Often a horse picked to win from a system based on past runs/earnings etc., is placed in a race for other reasons than to win, or the trainer is being over-optimistic or just plain dumb.

A fitness run for a different distance, or to reduce weight penalty for a future race it will be placed to win in, are some common reasons.

Unsuitable [meaning as a winning chance] distance/conditions or class etc. are used regularly for these purposes.

I had three runners for a system yesterday and 2 were ruled out for the above reasons. Both were unplaced and the one I backed payed $6.90 for a win [immediate system SR and average divvy improvement].

Apart from when a Jockey is told to run a bad race, we should be able to recognize unsuitable races for a systems pick and as a final system filter, rule the horse out as a bet. Sure, some might salute, but most won't and this should make a big difference to a systems bottom line.

Often, a purely mechanical systems greatest limiting factor is the user, unable or unwilling to throw in a bit of basic reasoning as a final filter.

A simple example: A system throws up a pick that is running at a track that it has started on 6 times for no placings, or has a similar result over a certain distance/track condition.

Bet the animal because the system says so and well who knows, it might win [and so might the 150/1 shot in the race too] ?

I don't think so.

I know such a variable filter can't be measured and used to calculate it's effects on a system, but heck, I'd rather count [money] than measure, any day !

Cheers.



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-07-03 06:23 ]