OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - View Single Post

Just to illustrate some of the points I was making, here is the Favourites system breakdown.

Bets 2791 (3.5 years)
Wins 1296
strike rate 46.4%
level stake profit $137 (based on $1 bets with NSW/SP divs)

Based on this info one would just launch into it and ....
It will be OK ! As the Bet Analysis tells me that with flat bet of 1% of bank $100 ($1 bet size) has an Average draw-down of just 9% and Maximum draw-down of 24% over the sample. So that is a comfortable, no stress low risk betting scenario with nearly 5% POT.

Now lets look at some different scenarios using the same selections, divs and just changing the betting method using a Starting bank of just $100.
Note BR = Bank Risk

Level stakes of 1% on best bank. (variable increasing bet size) This produces double the profits $266 but the risk goes up. Avg BR is 10%, Max BR is 40%. That means along the way you are asked to trust the system while 40% of your bank dispersers. Would you continue? Its not a loaded question, if you can manage this then you can use this very profitable method.
Level Stakes of 1% on current bank. (variable bet size up and down) this also produces better profit of $205. Avg BR is 10% and Max BR is 42%. It looks like the dynamic of the system is not so kind to this betting method on this system.
Proportional constant stake to take out 1%. (variable bet size, based on the selection price) This method produces a measly $16 profit. So obviously it grossly under utilises the method! we need to increase the stake.
Proportional constant stake to take out 4%. (variable bet size, based on the selection price) This method produces a $200 profit. Simmilar to Bet scenario 2 but with Avg BR 11% and Max BR 33% it is far safer.
Proportional stake to take out 4% or current bank (variable bet size, based on bank and selection price) This produces $396 profit, the best so far BUT, with Avg BR of 13% and Max BR of 68%, would you have the determination to continue? Probably not so we need to see if a better balance can be struck with this betting method.
Reducing the above to 3% produces $224 profit with Max BR still at unacceptable 56%.
Reducing further down to 2% we make $184 with Avg BR 10% and Max BR 34%. Which is safe and sustainable, but not as profitable however it gives the flexibility of increasing bets when the profits are being made and reduces the bets in the lean period. Further tests will reveal the best take out percentage to use with this system.

I could go on, there are many other scenarios that I could test, however it just boils down to what risk you are willing to take on the way to making your profit. Having the ability to test and evaluate these risks BEFORE they happen will arm you with the right betting method to take the best advantage of the given system.

Looking at the system above, we know that the average risk is around 10% of your bank using any of the methods. The maximum risk to the bank varies, managing this risk in a way that is acceptable to you is THE ONLY WAY that you will actually reap the profits from this system. If you under utilise the system then you will walk away from it thinking that you can't make profits from favourites. If you over-extend your bank threshold and quit you will walk away knowing that you go broke backing faves.

The reality is that when utilised and managed correctly, there is good profits to be made here. It comes down to managing your bank draw-down risk correctly, that is after you have created a profitable system to start with.

Kind Regards