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Quote:

Originally Posted by darkydog2002

Hi Michel/Paul,
In relation to Dead/Slow /Heavy TC do you bet to a Minimum Price.?

At $3 In the small study I,ve done it appears to lift the Profit quite well but your opinion is very welcome.

Cheers and thanks
darky

Ps.I consider Dead to be a combination Trackwise of all 3 TC on various parts of the Track.

Hi darkydog2002

Back from a short holiday and ready to attack the bookies again.

In respect of your question, "In relation to Dead/Slow /Heavy TC do you bet to a Minimum Price.?"
No. In terms of my own betting, I bet proportionally to collect 4% of my betting bank based on my own assessment of probability regardless of track condition. Even in terms of my pre-determined bets (those that clients of the SRA Selection Service receive which is all of them save for exotics), When an actual price is below my assessment I still generally bet in accordance with the recommendation. If for example I assess a horse $2.00 and the best available is $1.90 I still bet as this is within 2.63% in terms of probability of my assessment. If it was $1.80 then I would most likely pass. Another example if I assess a horse at $4.00 then I would bet at $3.60 but would pass at $3.20.

Yes Dead is a tricky track condition. I make my own assessment during the course of a day based on what the official track condition is reported at plus my own observations which are based on qualitative and quantitative data. Many times the official TC is incorrect based on our own assessment. That is supported by the fact that after the races are run, that many official track conditions are changed historically to reflect our previous assessment.