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4th July 2013, 06:58 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 107
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Hi Brett
Good to see you have also put your toe into the waters of a terrific forum.
Personally as mentioned I back max of two horses. Its great if both are in my system. However backing the favourite or 2nd favourite with good form and weight etc as a saver is a good idea. I always bet to win more on my selection and to win a smaller amount on the saver.
As you can imagine over 40 years of trying ideas Dutch betting was often on the radar. I have had extremely good runs backing up to 6 horses, when the prices allowed. However when the inevitable bad run occurs it doesn't take long to blow the bank.
I have also been burnt badly in the past with forming my own market ie deciding that horse (a) is showing odds of 10/1 and my market suggest it should be 5/2. Horse (b) is favourite and should be 8/1 in my market. etc etc etc.
Unfortunately there are often reasons the average punter is not aware of as to the price disparity. So often a horse that blows continually from it's opening quote, even when thrown in at the weights, superior class and form... will run last, and a horse that won a country maiden by a head in its previous start romps in.
One of my elimination clauses is to dump a selection if it blows more than 4 points from its opening price.
My success lately I believe is because my system actually only selects between one and four races to bet on, out of around 32 races that are usually available in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide.
In saying all of the above, I have a mate who has nerves of steel and does do well out of Dutch betting and following the market. He has two partners in other states and bets on most metro tracks and has a sophisticated setup of computers, Skype and every gismo known to man.
He makes a good living and wins as often as a successful bookie. He has the personality of George Clooney on Oceans 11 and is cool as a cucumber.
A few years ago he asked me to join up. I checked out his amazing setup and witnessed a day at the races. Split second decisions have to be made and still with a cool calculating head, just before the gates open.
He is just 45 and I reckon he will retire any time from now a very rich man.
Unfortunately I can't operate like that so in fairness to him I had to decline his offer. Definitely heart attack material for a mere mortal like myself!!
Welcome aboard Brett
Dave
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