4th July 2013, 09:11 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 740
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Brett V.02
Wow RP,
Great Thread.
Can I run this past you to see if I understand this.
2 Budderoo Dragon is 2.8 fave and as such a 31% chance
14 Shawinigan at 10 was 7th fave and a 4% chance
1 Big City Dreams 26 was 13th fave and a 0% chance
So 35% of winning or odds of around $2.85
To dutch for a return of $100 you would need:-
@ 2.8 bet $36 for 100
@ 10 bet $10 for 100
@ 26 bet $4 for 104
So $50 outlay for min return 100 ($2) or max return 104 ($2.02) so it would be and a considerable underlay
Cheers
Brett
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Brett, Horse 1 $2.80 has a historical chance of winning 31% of races, but it's price says that it's got a 36% chance of winning so value if Laying not Backing.
Horse 2, has a historical chance of winning 4% of races, but it's price says that it's got a 10% chance of winning. Again another Lay opportunity, not for Backers!
Horse 3, don't even bother including it to Back.You should be Dutch Laying the three to lose.
The Ready Reckoner is a rounded off somewhat, because it is not field size specific, just an average.
I have a WSR % Ready Reckoner for every field size. The tool has to be weighed up with other considerations though as underlays can be created by weight of money in the late stages of betting on a horse that will win, just over bet. So you're better off using the tool in the mid to fat end of the market.
RP
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