Hi All,
Was playing with these lovely filters and found myself sliding down that slippery slope once again (4 horses started at provincial meetings at distances over 1800 and all lost so that must be a good filter.) So to cut a long story short (which you may be able to tell I can't do
) I "Chi'd" the filtered results.
I have looked at the following filters based on our results.
- Maiden/Non-Maiden
- Starting Price Under $3/ $3 - $4.9/ $5 and Over
- Metro/Provincial
- Metro Under $5/ Provincial Under $5
- Distance <1600/>=1600
Using Chi Squared, only 2 filters improved the results and only one of those filters improved the results greatly, and one filter showed slightly lower results.
For the purpose of testing I will now use 4 systems.
1. The Original System
2. SP under $3 System
3. Provincial SP under $5 System
4. Distance < 1600m System
We will recommence the testing period as of today, run each for 100 selections and then Chi and see.
Cheers
Brett
Overall
Selections 85 Chi Sq. 2.39
Wins 32
Win % - 37.6%
Outlay $85.00
Return $106.80
POT - 25.6%
Non-Maiden
Selections 62 Chi Sq. 1.34
Wins 23
Win % - 37.1%
Outlay $62.00
Return $75.80
POT - 22.3%
Maiden
Selections 23 Chi Sq. 1.14
Wins 9
Win % - 39.1%
Outlay $23.00
Return $31.00
POT - 34.8%
SP Under $3
Selections 36 Chi Sq. 2.21
Wins 20
Win % - 55.6%
Outlay $36.00
Return $46.20
POT - 28.3%
SP $3-$4.9
Selections 33 Chi Sq. 1.85
Wins 10
Win % - 30.3%
Outlay $33.00
Return $48.30
POT - 46.4%
SP $5 and Over
Selections 16 Chi Sq. 0.17
Wins 2
Win % - 12.5%
Outlay $16.00
Return $12.30
POT - -23.1%
Metro
Selections 36 Chi Sq. 0.76
Wins 14
Win % - 38.9%
Outlay $36.00
Return $43.60
POT - 21.1%
Provincial
Selections 49 Chi Sq. 1.64
Wins 18
Win % - 36.7%
Outlay $49.00
Return $63.20
POT - 29.0%
Metro Under $5
Selections 24 Chi Sq. 1.38
Wins 12
Win % - 50.0%
Outlay $24.00
Return $31.30
POT - 30.4%
Provincial Under $5
Selections 45 Chi Sq. 2.93
Wins 18
Win % - 40.0%
Outlay $45.00
Return $63.20
POT - 40.4%
Distance <1600
Selections 64 Chi Sq. 4.17
Wins 27
Win % - 42.2%
Outlay $64.00
Return $88.70
POT - 38.6%
Distance >1600
Selections 21 Chi Sq. 0.15
Wins 5
Win % - 23.8%
Outlay $21.00
Return $18.10
POT - -13.8%
Distance >1600
(Exc Prov 1800+)
Selections 17 Chi Sq. 0.03
Wins 5
Win % - 29.4%
Outlay $17.00
Return $18.10
POT - 6.5%