Hi Rails Run,

You are right, it is not the simplest of things to get right. It is recommended that the bets are placed in the last minute especially if there are selections that are not a clear fave. You can use what ever media to determine the Fave; Sp, Betfair, one of the totes and so on, as long as you do this consistently it will even out the bumps.

Many times we don't get to count the winner, even though the bet was on, due to late change in SP order, change in track condition and so on. Obviously this also happens and the horse loses but in the end consistency of application will smooth this over.

Even more importantly it is imperative to give yourself a chance to get the best possible price. The last General (17/7 Darwin 4) was SP $5.5 it was also available at $6 at several bookies, $6.5 with one bookie, $7 on betfair.

Spending more time on obtaining a good price is more important then worrying about possible selections that are close. Remember these selections are per-qualified in Axis and have a great chance of winning.

Obviously Axis does not need to have its hand held by the market, the raw selections from this system have the ability to make profit as I illustrated in previous posts in this thread. Also other systems can be devised that can be placed on early in one lot so as to eliminate the need to sit there.

The exercise here was to see if favourites can be profitable, it looks like over last 3 years and 6 months live testing (2 months here), that it is possible providing that one can identify those favourites that are deserving of that title, which we accomplish using our ratings as the main filters, there will be more on this, as we unveil even more functionality in Axis over the next few weeks.

Kind regards

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/