28th July 2013, 05:52 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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Super 15 finals
I was off for a month and I re-started predictions again on week 19. I’ve been surprised since then (in a good way). Only 5 of the last 16 games have been value bets, all supporting the dogs h2h. Four of the five dogs paid off, which is unusually high (good for us). On week 19, the Highlanders paid h2h decimal odds of 3.30. On week 20, the Western Force paid 3.75 (but the Blues lost at 2.80). I had said the most likely winners last week were the Crusaders and Bulls but the bookmakers favoured the Crusaders by 4.5 compared to my 1 and the Bulls by 8.5 compared to my 6, making the dogs attractive as value bets. In the semifinals, the Chiefs paid 2.45 and Brumbies paid 4.00. The year’s profit on turnover is an unusually high 35% compared to a 19 season average of 12%. That’s great because there was a 10% loss last season. The last two-season average POT is just right.
The Brumbies have a higher rating than the Chiefs but I favour the Chiefs by 4 points based on home advantage. I hope the final is as good as the semifinals.
See you next year!
Ray Stefani
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