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14th August 2013, 02:25 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 13
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A race with an infinite number of horses with an equal amount of money bet on each horse is a perfectly competitive race. If all of the money were bet on a single horse, it is a perfectly uncompetitive race. Most races, of course, are somewhere in between these two extremes.
The following is a formula that quantifies race entropy or competitiveness:
sum ([1/O(i)]^2)/n
where
O(i) = odds of the ith horse
n = number of entries
The larger the value, the more uncompetitive the race.
1. Convert the odds to probabilities (1/o = p)
#***o***p
1***2***1/2=.50
2***3***1/3=.33
3***4***1/4=.25
Total prob = 1.08
2. Normalize the probabilities
1/total prob = 1/1.08 = .926
#***o***p******normalized
1***2***1/2=.50***x.926=.46
2***3***1/3=.33***x.926=.31
3***4***1/4=.25***x.926=.23
Total normalized prob = 1.00
3. Square the normalized probabilities
#***o***p******normalized**norm squared
1***2***1/2=.50***x.926=.46***x.46=.21
2***3***1/3=.33***x.926=.31***x.31=.10
3***4***1/4=.25***x.926=.23***x.23=.05
4. Average the squared normalized probabilities
#***o***p******normalized**norm squared
1***2***1/2=.50***x.926=.46***x.46=.21
2***3***1/3=.33***x.926=.31***x.31=.10
3***4***1/4=.25***x.926=.23***x.23=.05
Average squared normalized prob = (.21+.10+.05)/3=.36/3=.12
The competitiveness index of this race is .12.
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