14th August 2013, 12:13 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Magister Ludi
You can use any public odds that you like to calculate the race's ci.
To reiterate, a maximum entropy/minimum ci race is one where all horses have identical parimutuel probabilities. A minimum entropy/maximum ci race is one which has a uniform distribution of parimutuel probabilities over the interval 0 to 1.
Ceteris paribus, a longer field will yield a lower ci. Conversely, a shorter field will yield a higher ci.
The ci can used to determine the state of the tote board as well as a metric to index the races after the race has been run. It is a metric measuring competitiveness as determined by the bettors. It is also a concentration or dispersion of the odds in a horse race. The ci does not measure the strength of field. It measures the public's perception of the competitiveness of the field.
It is a way to measure more than just the favorite to determine the public's perception of the race's competitiveness.
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So once the handicapper has finished (please note the handicapping is done before the barrier draw) all horses are equal. However being smarter than the handicapper and with the benefit of the barrier draw, the average punter knows that whilst all horses are equal some horses are more equal than others.
This new found smartness (punters being smarter than handicappers) starts with the PP or punters own (or acquired) odds and goes through to the race's finish. This CI provides a method of measuring the degree of smartness, in each set of odds, vs the handicapper, in each race.
So you can have a CI on the PP, A/odds, open and SP and any other set of odds.
Anyone assessing a race can see that there is one, two or three horses favoured to win a race. This is easily seen in the price or price grouping (1, 2 or 3 horse represent most of the money in a race)
Thus I am assuming here that this CI measures how much a 1 horse race is so that it can be used to compare similar races. I am trying to see where this could be a benefit or is it a distraction.
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