Its the same for any betting. But you need to know your edge.

In my EPL Round 1 thread you can see my estimated chance of winning, the odds and the calculations. For example lets look at my Liverpool bet:

Liverpool to beat Stoke 87/98 = 87%. Odds $1.41 (71%)

My initial bank is $1000.
My Estimated chance of Liverpool winning is 87%.
The odds are given that Liverpool only has a 71% chance.

The calc is therefore :

Liverpool betsize = ((0.87*1.41)-1)/(1.41-1) = 55%

So for Kelly staking I would risk 55%. This is fairly high so I would go for much less. I am using half staking in the thread and I still think that is realistically too high. You would probably want to use 1/10th Kelly staking.


Noiw for a horse its exactly the same. Lets assume I rate a horse as a 50% chance and its paying $2.10. The calc would be:

Horse betsize = ((0.50*2.10)-1)/(2.10-1) = 4.5%

Your issue is working out the rated chance at a higher accuracy then the market.