Hi Benny

UB's is right. Using fully or even half Kelly is too risky when betting horses. Primarily because the use of Kelly on horse race betting means you are betting into single/multiple events where the ability to calculate your precise edge is unknown.

Personally I bet proportionally to collect 4% of my bank which is reset after each day's betting. The price pivot that I use is my assessed price. This translates to a fractional Kelly bet of approximately 25%.

My suggestion to you would be to adopt the same approach but substitute the the price pivot to be the market price unless you have a great deal of experience in producing accurate probability estimates.

E.g. If your bank is $10,000 and you are betting to collect 4% on a horse that is $2.00 in the market then your bet would be 4/$2.00 = 2 units. If the market price was $4.00 then the bet would be 4/$4.00 = 1 unit. It is assumed that your unit size in $ is 1% of your bank.

Hope that helps.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/