On the subject of gear changes, here's an illustration.
Taking only those fancied in the market for Geelong and Cessnock today.
Cessnock R1
Hint Of Courage $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Zippity Zou $6.50, Tongue Tie on, unplaced
Cessnock R2
Galring $4.00 fave, no gear changes, 3rd
Casino Queen $4.80, no gear changes, WON
Oxana $6.00, no gear changes, 2nd
Cessnock R3
Quietly Confident $2.05 fave, blinkers on, WON
Salterton $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Natural Grey $6.50, ************s on, unplaced
Cessnock R4
Sorel Point $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Alimony $4.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Cessnock R5
Poulette $3.00 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Lovethebeaches $4.60, no gear changes, unplaced
Leaders Road $7.00, no gear changes, WON
Cessnock R6
Sukraji $4.00 fave, no gear changes, WON
Believe It $4.80, no gear changes, unplaced
Madame Fly $7.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Excellent Style $7.00, no gear changes, 2nd
Miss Mackillop $7.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Cessnock R7
Non Stop Rock $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Mount Earnslaw $8.50, no gear changes, unplaced
Cessnock R8
Scarlatti $2.90 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Just For Keeps $4.50, no gear changes, unplaced
Dancing Paris $9.00, Blinkers FIRST time, ************s off FIRST time, unplaced*
Geelong R1
Ysabelle $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Promise To Rock $4.30 no gear changes, WON
Overnighter $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Geelong R2
St Chloe $1.95 fave, no gear changes, WON
Master Dee Art $4.20, no gear changes, unplaced
Kentucky Gem, $4.20 Blinkers FIRST time, 2nd*
Geelong R3
Critical Angel $1.90 fave, no gear changes, WON
Racing Nadine $5.50 ,no gear changes 2nd
Fine Diamond $5.00 , no gear changes, unplaced
Geelong R4
Jaja Malu $4.20 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Damysus $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Singersongwriter $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Biancrazy $6.60, Bllinkers off FIRST time, 3rd*
Geelong R5
Leonne $3.10 fave,tongue tie FIRST time, 3rd*
Street Crime $4.20, Cross Over Noseband FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME unplaced***
Rogue Force $5.00, no gear changes, 2nd
Geelong R6
Good And Hot $3.10 fave, Blinkers off again, 2nd
Black Jack Boy $3.20, no gear changes, unplaced
Oamaru Princess $5.00, no gear changes, WON
Geelong R7
Chosen Son $5.00 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Roman Pleasure $5.50, no gear changes, unplaced
Armani Black $6.50, no gear changes, WON
Geelong R8
Dats A Lass $3.20 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Dark Pearl $4.20, no gear changes, 2nd
Platinum Panther $7.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Grandmaster Dash $7.00, no gear changes, 3rd
Geelong R9
Beau Jez $3.30 fave, no gear changes, WON
Bated Breath $4.00, no gear changes, 3rd
Mount Zero $4.80, no gear changes, 2nd
Babur $6.50, no gear changes, unplaced
No gear changes:
44 horses in the market
11 winners
Return 43.05
Loss 0.95 @ tattsbet fixed odds
LOT 2.16%
Blinkers / ************s on:
2
1 winner
Return 2.05
Profit 0.05 @ tattsbet fixed odds
POT 2.50%
Blinkers / ************s first time on:
2
0 winners
LOT 100%
Tongue Tie on:
1
0 winners
LOT 100%
Tongue Tie on first time:
1
0 winners
LOT 100%
Crossover noseband on first time:
1
0 winners
LOT 100%
Favourites, no gear changes:
14 favourites
6 winners
Return 15.45
Profit 1.45 @ tattsbet fixed odds
POT 10.36%
Favourites Blinkers / ************s on:
1
1 winner
Return 2.05
Profit 1.05 @ tattsbet fixed odds
POT 105.00%
When it comes to favourites, I like to note blinkers / ************s first time, blinkers / ************s again, tongue tie again or no gear changes.
Hint Of Courage $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Galring $4.00 fave, no gear changes, 3rd
Quietly Confident $2.05 fave, blinkers on, WON
Sorel Point $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Poulette $3.00 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Sukraji $4.00 fave, no gear changes, WON
Non Stop Rock $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Scarlatti $2.90 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Ysabelle $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
St Chloe $1.95 fave, no gear changes, WON
Critical Angel $1.90 fave, no gear changes, WON
Jaja Malu $4.20 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Chosen Son $5.00 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Dats A Lass $3.20 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Beau Jez $3.30 fave, no gear changes, WON
I think that's a fairly impressive statistic!
Then LAY all horses in the market, that are blinkers or ************s off / off again, tongue tie first time, crossover nose band first time,
Biancrazy $6.60, Bllinkers off FIRST time, 3rd*
Leonne $3.10 fave,tongue tie FIRST time, 3rd*
Street Crime $4.20, Cross Over Noseband FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME unplaced***
Good And Hot $3.10 fave, Blinkers off again, 2nd
Reason being, horses racing first time in blinkers or ************s, can improve lengths, tongue tie first time is something the horse struggles to cope with unless he has raced before with it and learned how to breathe. Plenty of horses win with tongue ties on, once they are used to them.
Blinkers, ************s off, off again etc, unless replaced with the former or latter means it didn't work and they will revert to the same bad habits in running.
Above, four horses well in the market, returned a good lay profit for the day.
It's not all beer and skittles, but overall the stats add up for both back and lay methods.
Crossover noseband and tongue tie first time was a huge indicator to go in solid for a decent liability.
It's the reasons behind the statistics that are important, and has more to do with understanding a horse reaction to new gear.
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