21st August 2013, 05:20 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Benny
I came up with the following.
I give Denver Bronco's a 87% chance of winning at home, so my bet according to the Kelly method would be
((0.87*1.22)-)/1.22-1)=27% of the bank which is a little high.
What would you suggest?
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Hi Benny
If you have no way of knowing your precise edge as is the case for most punters who are betting on sports/horses etc then I would suggest that around 25% Kelly is appropriate. Obviously this depends on what your overall risk threshold is. In that context, sadly most punters tend to overestimate that level and that is one of the key betting mistakes.
It has taken me years of experience and huge R&D investments to understand properly my likely edge. That said and with a risk threshold of around 50% of my betting capital I am still only willing to invest to the level described above.
At the end of the day though these decisions are yours to make. If you want me to run a betting simulation for you (long term probable ranges of outcomes) then I will need from you, what your average strike rate is, your expected profit edge in terms of a percentage and what you think your risk threshold might be. That is what percentage of your bank you are prepared to lose and still continue to bet with confidence.
Hope that helps.
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Regards
Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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