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Old 21st June 2002, 09:28 AM
Placegetter Placegetter is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 191
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I agree. Newspaper tipsters can have their opinions all to themselves for my liking. Other rules with a question mark. There is only one I know of worth his salt, even then he's a bit streaky.

"2/If the horse's TAB number is between number 1 and up to and including number 6, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reasons for this is that this group of horses win over 65% of all races)"

This is statistically unsound. Almost all races have 6 horses in them (I used to live in Darwin so know all about small fields) but how many have 14 runners or more that you apply the rules to?

"5/If the horse's last start was less than 22 days, then give the horse 1 pt.
{the reason for this is that this group of horses win over 85% of all races****"

Again statistically unsound, as the majority of horses will fall into this category, although not quite to the extent of the 6 runners or more in a field category.

"6/If the horse's barrier position is between 1 and 12, then give the horse 1 pt."

Enough debate has been made on this forum regarding this point to say just one thing. Bollocks.

"8/If the horse has either one of the top 3 jockeys riding it or is trained by one of the top 3 trainers, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reason for this is that this class jockey/trainer wins more often)"

How are we rating the jockeys or trainers. Winners as a percentage of the horses ridden or trained? If I had a thousand horses in work and got 500 winners and Equine Investor had 10 horses in work and got 20 winners, who would you be backing? What's a top jockey anyway? I'll have any of the top fifteen in all but the best races (when they are literally up against each other).

"9/If the horse is 4Kgor heaiver than the lowest weighted horse, then give the horse 1 pt. (The reason for this is that the handicapper obviously believes that this horse is better quality than the lower weighted horses)"

Of course the handicapper thinks its better, that's why he's giving it the grandstand. Ever heard the saying 'Weight will stop a train'....... Unless you're Sunline and the race is the All Aged. Big weights are knocked over just as often as they get up.

10/If the horse is aged between 2 yers and 5 years, then give the horse 1 pt.
{The reason for this is that youth usually carries more speed and stamina)

Ever watched a 2yo race. They go really fast alright.......sideways. I would amend this one to 3yo-5yo and treat the babies with less respect. Maybe put them in your fun bets.
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