4th September 2013, 04:20 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Hi Paul,
In relation to the Max Drawdown calculator and the differences between your set up and the one given out.
If I take the last 301 bets on wet tracks the figures are
301 trials
Av odds $3.60
Edge 0.44
Profit 26 .6 profit
Max Drawdown 25.4
LLR 16
Chance of Winning 27.9 (my current Win %)
Staking I use is
Bet to take $200 divided X Gross price of odds
$200 divided $3.70 = Bet of $54.
I would be most interested on your calculations and how they differ.
Thanks for that.I appreciate it.
Cheers
darky
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Hi darky
301 bets, 27.9% Strike rate, average div of $3.60, edge 0.44%, risk threshold of 50% and assuming a $10,000 bank the figures are:
Expected profit: $106
68% of the time the results will be between -8.9% POT (-$2,135) and 9.7% POT $2,347
95% of the time the results will be between -18.2% POT (-4,376) and 19.1% POT $4,588.
Anywhere between the above ranges is normal. There is still a 5% chance that your results will fall outside the above ranges. Bottom line is that you are risking a lot of money for virtually no profit and IMO given the small sample anyone betting and relying on an edge of only 0.44% will more than likely go broke.
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Regards
Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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