Hi darky

Your edge is the problem in that its too small. Your average div is made up of all your bets across all price ranges. Accordingly if you don't bet on the shorter ones then your strike rate will reduce which makes it even harder to profit.

In terms of likelihood of failure, my view is that risking 50% of your bank to potentially win only 0.44% POT doesn't make any sense. Most punters overestimate their edge assuming they have one in the first place, which most obviously don't. To win with such a small edge is very difficult if not impossible.

If you can send me a list of these horses then I will analyse them for you and send you the results so you can see for yourself the impact of changing the minimum price and 115 or so other variables.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/