15th October 2013, 02:59 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by darkydog2002
In the regard to Double overlays I use Gary Crispes analyisis of prices and I can tell you that most Priced under $4 are invairably double that on the Fixed Tote (UniTab.)
Hence the question.
Thank you for your reply.
Much appreciated.
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Hi darky,
Some might disagree with me, but if you are regularly betting to prices (using the example quoted) that have an assessed probability =<25%, and these are available more often than not at double that on the tote at jump time, then I suggest that they (the assessments) aren't much good. This is is no way a personal statement aimed at Gary as I have the utmost respect for him, but is made in the context of the math required to support your suggestion.
Why? Because the notion that anyone has assessments that are consistently able to deliver probability with an implied betting edge (ignoring the TAB takeout) of ~50% is absurd. Of course after removing the takeout it becomes even more distorted. The SP market is simply too accurate for these types of price anomaly to exist on a regular basis.
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Regards
Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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