
17th October 2013, 12:40 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 740
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
1. what the market values .... incorrectly
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For me, the above means searching for false favourites to Lay, or for others, to seek out another horse to Back. This is usually indicated by a Fave priced outside the norm. By norm I mean a selection with a price within the average SP for the particular field size. I define average as 80% of all prices starting from the middle price and working outwards to encompass 80% of all SP's that has occurred over a three year period. Any 1st Fave outside this range is a likely false favourite. There were a number yesterday, but just two as an example were R1 Caulfield $3.90 Fave Googly Gander & R7 Murray Bridge $3.80 Fave Addiction To Rock. Both lost.
For me, the best practice is to disregard previous form entirely, and let the law of averages ' do the talkin'!
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