18th November 2013, 09:50 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,237
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Michal
Possibly many have glazed over this rather important principle.
Emotionally most people can handle the day when the strike rate reaches 55%, no problems there  but as soon as we get a day like 7% the questions come out, whats wrong, whats broken, you shouldn't be having those horses on top, and those other horses should be ... and on it goes. To be honest, I am the first one to wonder! Yet, NOTHING is broken, what is happening is a random deviation which can and do last for days until a correction occurs.
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Brilliant post Michal. Illuminating stuff on a Monday morning.
My thoughts are that if we can manage to separate the following tasks and execute them like a 'professional', we will be able to better manage and exploit the concepts of probability and randomness, with respect to this 'game'.
1. research / gathering evidence - like a scientist
2. selection amongst different options - like a business manager
3. execution of the strategy - like a machine
Given that most of us are not resourced up to manage all three simultaneously and/or at a consistently high standard, outsourcing some (all?) may be the answer. We are lucky enough today to witness the kind of technologies and relatively low price points that make this achievable.
If this is the case, perhaps all we would then need is some direction and clarity from time to time to keep the plates spinning in the right direction, the bank increasing etc. Better still, make the impact of 1 - 3 real-time, and put it in the palm of our hand to oversee. You may just have a 'game changer'.
A blue ocean of opportunity?
Cheers LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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