Hi shifty,

On a sample of 100,000 trials the LLS for a SR of 8.4% is:

101 (69.56% chance that this will occur)

137 (4.93% chance that this will occur)

155 (1.04% chance this will occur).

The issue is the LLS is only one piece of the puzzle. More importantly is the maximum draw down on your betting bank which at the end of the day is the key piece of information that most punters are blissfully unaware of. There are lots of methods/systems that appear to work when one looks at the end results. The problem is though that more than likely, the method/system has a draw down peak that exceeds the punters betting capital.

My suggestion is that you place more emphasis in learning what the risk factors are than focusing purely on strike rate. You might want to take at a recent post I made that deals with the relationship between strike rate and its impact on bankroll management and profits. I have posted the link below.

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27589

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/