OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - View Single Post

Hi RP and Speedy,

RP, you have hit the nail on the head re track design and track racing characteristics. In my opinion anyway, that isn't so much shown in the performance of the ratings for a given track but rather from picking the right horse in a race or letting a race go because the horses that you fancy are disadvantaged. Track specific calculations are taken into account by our ratings software as well in overcoming what you describe on a track performance level.

Speedy, one of the many reasons that most ratings have flat-spots at some tracks, can be explained by the form and calculation methods they use. We have really not written much on this forum regarding the data correction processes that we undertake on a daily basis, but it's fair to say that these routines comprise approximately 35% of all our programming code. This gives you some idea about the enormity of the task required to turn the so called "official" form into something that is accurate and for the most part free from the plethora of errors that otherwise go unnoticed. Below is a link to our Axis educational articles should you be interested that explains in part what we do with our data. It is explained in the article titled R2W Data:

http://www.ratings2win.com.au/learn...tional-articles

We source amongst other things accurate times for every Australian, NZ and HK TAB race run and apply that to our main database. This is a huge and expensive task. But for anyone using the times and margins for that matter, track conditions and even distances that are wrong to calculate ratings then they can't be surprised that many tracks offer seemingly poorer performance. The more significant the errors the bigger the decline in a ratings ability to be correct.

I'm not saying that you can't win with "official" form, of course you can! All I am saying, is that our corrections produce a superior level of performance across all tracks long-term. Having the luxury of not have to second guess the many (good or bad) performances of individual horses, wondering if they are real or if the time was out by a second or more, goes a long way towards maintaining a clear mind so that I can then undertake more detailed form study which in turn allows me to execute my bets with confidence. Oh and the better rating performance doesn't hurt either!