16th July 2004, 06:09 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 5
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Quote:
On 2004-07-08 12:16, cameron398 wrote:
Hello all. I can recall seeing some great stats in the past for performance of favourites.
And do you think I can find them now when I want them hehe. NO!!
Can someone please assist with the historical percentage of favs winning, running second and third.
If someone out there is really organised they may have these figures broken down to include different percentages for different starting prices also.
Help would be much appreciated.
Ta
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For Victorian TAB meetings since 1/Jan/2003 :
Total runs = 66506
Races = 6210
Hits%:
1.Fav: 1st=30.90, 2nd=19.02, 3rd=14.27
2.Fav: 1st=19.47, 2nd=17.52, 3rd=14.70
3.Fav: 1st=13.42, 2nd=14.75, 3rd=14.41
If the punter bets $1 on each of the top 3 favs to win on every race (with the bookmakers, at SP):
POT:
1.Fav = -8.65%
2.Fav = -13.48%
3.Fav = -22.83%
(I'm lazy - separate pct for diff SPs is too much work right now. But from memory of analysis I did a few months ago, the shorter the SP, the less the loss-on-turnover, especially the odds-on favs. I remember this because it was a surprising result, contradicting the old saying that "Odds on, look on")
Hope this helps.
[ This Message was edited by: tandy on 2004-07-16 19:12 ]
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