G'Day Luckyboy,

Yes, I do beg to differ.

I have run the TAB number 1 analysis, restricting only to HCP races.

800-1199m 21% SR (1,229 races)
1200-1599m 17% SR (2,729 races)
1600-1999m 17% SR (1,078 races)
2000-2399m 21% SR (417 races)
>=2400m 21% SR (89 races)


There is absolutely nothing to suggest that top weighted runners have less success over longer distances. In fact, if you take it at face value they have a higher strike rate at distances >=2000m.

As a matter of interest, since the start of the year, if you had backed every TAB #1 in races 2000m or greater you would have had a 21.5% SR (109 wins from 506 bets) and a profit of 5.7%).

Stats are stats and I would never suggest something so simple has a sustainable advantage. The point is though that there is no factual evidence to support the point you made.

Cheeers :smile: