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Old 23rd June 2002, 06:10 PM
Equine Investor Equine Investor is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
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Quote:
On 2002-06-23 12:13, chief wrote:
This method is doomed to fail.

A horse's credentials is "relative" to its competition in a race.

You cannot hope to win, backing horses, by judging them on their own merits, without looking at the competition. In other words you have to assess all the major chances in a race. More often than not - your stable horse will not be the best horse in the race.

Therefore you'd be better off without a "stable" and just assess each race on its merits without clouding your judgement with personal bias towards a horse.

Good punters are objective - they don't have any particular bias towards an individual horse which this method encourages.




Chief, you are entitled to your opinion as far as this being doomed to fail. I did state in my first post re this system that it takes time to fire up. Again, I am not necessarily trying to pick the winner of an individual race against opposition, I am investing in a horse that I know has the class and ability to be able to string a few races together each campaign. Some will run 8th and then pop up at any old odds because there are things about a horses preparation that we as punters are not privy to(eg blood work, viruses, shin soreness, etc etc). Good form is winning form on the formguide and so these horses which are placing each start are usually under the $10 mark.
The shorter priced winners top up the bank...eventually. The profits lie in the $10 plus area.

I am a very objective punter and usually bet according to statistics rather than sentiment (except for Super Impose and old Luther's luck, which both won me a packet).

I have been using this sytem for the past 5 years and while you do string together a few very bad days, on occasion I have had days where 8 horses saluted (in different states at $15.00 plus each with the biggest price being about 33/1).
But I can't convince anyone else til it starts to turn a profit when a lot of the stable have had at least 3 runs. You can't judge it on around 30 horses with one run each. It seems people expect to pick every winner of every race...
We'd all be millionaires!

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-23 19:15 ]
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