2nd March 2014, 11:37 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 268
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Overbet Form Factor
After running some analysis on my ratings for Saturday Metro races over the past 14 months since January 2013 I have found something interesting. Overall my top rated horse has the following results with no additional filters based on NSWTAB dividends:
Races - 2323
Wins - 651
S/R - 28%
Return - 2371
P/L - 48
POT - 2.1%
Now after running through some filters I found that 1 filter had almost identical bets and wins but a very different return. The filter is "Won at the Track", here is what I found:
Not Won At The Track
Races - 1162
Wins - 321
S/R - 28%
Return - 1252
P/L - 90
POT - 8%
Won At The Track
Races - 1161
Wins - 330
S/R - 28%
Return - 1118
P/L - -42
LOT - 4%
With almost identical bets and wins the only conclusion I can draw is that this factor has no actual bearing on whether the horse will or won't win but it has a very big bearing on the price of the horse on the TAB......very interesting.
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