7th March 2014, 10:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,437
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Fillies and Mares....
It's generally known that the handicapper usually gives age and or sex weight discounts. Generally it's accepted that this is purely based on perceived strength differences.
However, upon doing some analysis, the weight discount does not even the playing field.
So why is it that mares and fillies under perform and especially when competing against colts and geldings?
Having worked with fillies and mares they are often very nervous and have dual personalities. This can be based on being seasonal or just variation of temperament or attitude.
This would go further to explaining mixed form and form reversals.
Of course there are exceptions to this such as Makybe Diva and Black Caviar, but they are more even tempered or docile.
There are plenty of Youtube videos of Sunline's last race. She was clearly hyped up and mentally not right on her lead up to the barriers.
So the proposal I'm making is that strength has nothing to do with it. A brilliant mare or filly will beat the boys hands down every time providing she has shown consistent form.
Mares or fillies with mixed form or obviously toey or notoriously hard to load should be given significantly greater weight allowance when composing ratings. Unless the mare or filly is significantly good, definitely avoid taking short prices on those with yo yo form.
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