darkydog2002, Why does it have to be "unlucky horses"?

I reckon the next start the unlucky horse has, it would be at shorter odds than is warranted, 'cause everyone is onto it. Don't get me wrong, luv the thought, am grateful for your posts, just thinking (well trying to) out lud.


I would love find some method of picking a horse and following it for say five runs, and forgetting about form analysis.


Consider the following:

A 3yo or 4yo with about 10 runs under it's belt that has run a couple of good races in town in it's previous preparation. One crappy first up run will have it at very succulent odds next start up should it run again in town. If it was "in the market" first up and has won or run a good race at todays distance then consider putting it in your stable. 1) It's exposed form (first up ..... hasn't come up!???) assures a decent price. It would be one of the first horses dismissed because most punters go on current exposed form. 2) If the trainer has decided to put it in town on a Saturday, it has previously shown promise, is lightly raced then ........ for ONE ********** run this time in, you may be getting way over the odds about a horse that has a legimitate excuse for the first up failure.

Another method to try and pick a nag that may win a race or two at odds. Similar scenario to above except you are backing a horse 3rd up that has run a good race first up, but a poor race second up. If the second up run was over more distance than the first run, and if the second up run the horse raced close to the lead but faded ...... then I believe it is getting to the stage when it is cherry ripe. Providing the distance of todays race is suitable. Once again, you will be getting odds for a crappy run 2nd up (early in it's campaign).

Just a few mindless thoughts.