Quote:
|
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Hi CP, thanks for this but I'm probably missing something. Wouldn't the fave team win more often and wouldn't they normally firm therefore losing more often?
Are you talking about two team bets with no draws or do you also do this with drawers in soccer?
And what type of player markets are you talking about?
Sorry for the questions but it seems counter-intuitive (I didn't think I'd use that word this year).
|
The fave team will win more often especially at those sub $1.30 odds.
But I lose .50c or win $4.00 based on the previous example.
Sometimes the favourite team does drift and the outsider firms.
I do this for soccer comprising a draw, tennis, NRL and sometimes cricket.
I only do Match Odds not sub markets, purely for liquidity purposes.
I can only urge you to either follow it here for a while or grab Betfair's sports data, to see the advantage.
Essentially I backed Team B Carlton @ $9.00 using this method, when the last traded price before the game was roughly $4.60.
Assuming that Betfair markets are accurate (prior to commission deductions) one has to make a profit.
Or I layed Team A @ $1.125 when the last price was close to $1.27.
Therein lies the edge, regardless of the frequency of odds on favourites getting up.