If people have trouble maintaining a 75-80% strike rate, maybe they should look at a 50% strike rate combined with $2+ divs.

Favs which are often $1.30-1.50 for a win, only place about 55% of the time.

Some stats (from earlier posting I made)

Pre-post places
favs
1st 55%
2nd 43%
3rd 37%
4th 34%
5th 28%
6th 22%
7th 21%
8th 20%

Unless the top 3 are good value, placegetters should be looking at horses that are 4th-8th in the market for good value place bets.

In theory only 9% of the time do all the top 3 favs fill the entire placings.

Therefore, 91% of the time, one or more placegetters is outside the top 3 in the market.

40% of the time, 2 placegetters are outside the top 3 in the market.

16% of the time, all 3 placegettors are outside the top 3 in the market.



[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-26 16:17 ]