Well there were reasons why I might've just stayed away:

1. Business end of season, Dragons should perform for this one.

2. Injury, my model doesn't factor in injuries so how much of a difference has it made?

3. Heavy action, coming in on the Dragons. Was it sharp (pro bettor) money or just public?

4. Melbourne have only won 2/8 away from home.

Reasons for betting:

1. Business end of season, Melbourne will play up.

2. Injury. When this info comes out, people often over value the importance. Melbourne are a good club so should have enough depth to allow the injury not to have a huge impact.

3. Heavy action. Other lines don't move nearly so heavily, unless there is an injury. In fact the only one I can clearly remember is Easts vs Knights when knights had countless players out. The advantage off one single injury can not warrant such a large bet as % of BR. My conclusion is that it's not sharp money.

4. Dragons have won just 4/8 at home, and just 1/4 vs a more important factor I'd prefer not to state.

Melbourne also fits a very important trend.

I agree that on their day both teams are capable of walking over pretty much any other team.

I weighed up the pros and cons and Melbourne came out on top.

My system picked melbourne, I just wanted to to more work on this one and make sure I was comfortable with it.