Value is my middle name.That is my modum operandi.I convert my estimations into prices and then compare to the prices available.
In your case,a margin of 40 points equates to a price of $1.16,so then $1.18 is in fact slight value.
Mr J would have snapped it up in a second.
But me and you would have waited till it was better value.And that my friend Goldmember is what you really are looking for in your betting.BETTER VALUE.
Assessed at $1.16 would make a value bet for me if I could get $1.38