Need a bit of excel help here (walkermac, the maestro, where are you?)
This idea could be of interest to all and sundry though. In DNA of a Longshot Winner, I toyed with the idea of a pattern recognition theory using the flucs. It assigned a colour if on course flucs shortened, drifted or steady. This time I'm looking at all the Betfair flucs from Open to Close.
The Logic: If they're are more shorteners than drifter flucs, you could say that punters reckon the selection's got a chance and vice versa. Well the jury's out on that one! You could look at weight of money too, but I haven't seen anything conclusive there either. However if you included the price value into the equation, could that be more reliable?
In the attachment are the Betfair flucs of four runners in a race. The closing fluc is always the top of each column of flucs. Working from bottom to top, the Open fluc is assigned a positive number to begin each sequence. Any consecutive number
higher than previous fluc remains a
positive number. Any consecutive number
lower than the previous is assigned a
negative value (
red text). At the end of each sequence, in col E, the sum of the positive and negative flucs is totalled. It's getting columns D & E to work in excel, is my bugbear, as it needs to recognise the change to next runner, as well as higher or lower value of cell under.
Once I've got that, I can Pivot Table the spreadsheet and see what values were place getters and whether or not there's a pattern emerging.
Thanks in anticipation
