In a sense, Freedman is correct, but not telling the whole story? The smaller the field, the strike rate of the outsider will always be higher. It's not that you've stumbled across an edge or anything, it's just that the less horses to beat, the higher the percentage of win rate. The price of the outsider/longshot usually reflects that though, unless it's an absolute 'donkey' with no hope at all.

The more important factor to consider is the price of the favourites in a small field. Sometimes punters Focus and plough too much money into the first three and ignore the outsiders....to their detriment, as some of these outsiders can end up a value bet. The best place to cash in on this, is the Harness/Dogs, but only if you're an expert on form. Lightly traded Dog and Harness races often see a big bet placed on a particular selection by connections, then the sheep stampede to get on this 'sure thing' with little else wagered on the rest, pushing their prices out.

Similarly big fields of novice two year olds. The few with any form at all, tend to attract the punters money, as what else will the AAP computers be able to rate? Then along comes a longshot smokie, with only barrier trial form, and wins.