dcpg,

For all races of all field sizes the 1st fave is around that magical 30% mark.

For each field size the 1st fave win % is different as per RCP's post. But what CP and RCP are getting at is that those %'s essentially do not change over time and that the available odds generally reflect these % chances of winning less the take out.

So yes the 5th fave in a 5 horse field does have a higher chance of winning - 6% - BUT the odds available on that horse are also much lower on average too i.e. $15 compared to the 14th fave of a 14 horse field where the odds would be maybe $300 which reflects its <1% chance of winning.

Hopefully that clears it up.