27th April 2015, 03:17 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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Super 15 week 12 and handicap bets
In Super 15, we have had to expect the unexpected. For two weeks, 77% of my favourites won. Then for two weeks, only 38% won. In week 11, 100% of my favorites won. I’d rather expect the expected, so we’ll see what happens in week 12.
Stormers supporters cashed the only value bet from week 11.
The was a question about handicap bets. I'm sorry that I didn't notice the question. I provide a predicted margin of victory for each favourite (which can be used versus the bookmaker's ranges). You can take or give points, compared to the bookmaker's ranges and see if there is enough difference to bet. You can create a table that calculates the probablity of winning versus the bookie and use Kelly to decide how much to bet. If you are familiar with Excel and how to use a normal distribution, use a standard deviation of 13.7 points. You take the difference between my prediction and the bookie value, divide by 13.7 and get the probability. It's a little more tricky than a win/lose bet but I see that members do tip handicaps.
Good luck with week 12.
Ray Stefani
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